Latest Poll: 14 April 2024
Polling Average & Seat Projection
The 2024 Basque regional election will take place on 21 April. The centrist Basque nationalist EAJ/PNV have been the dominant party in the autonomous community since the Basque Parliament was formed in 1980 having come first in every election and been the party of all but one of the elected Lehendakaris.
Since 2016, EAJ/PNV have been governing in coalition with PSE-EE. The government could potentially lose their majority at this election, though at the moment they are polling just enough to remain in power.
PP are expected to make a small recovery after the disastrous result they got in 2020 on a joint list with Cs, with the list getting just 6.7%, the worst for the party since 1986.
The non-Abertzale left are at risk of losing all their seats due to Podemos splittng from Sumar. With both parties polling around 3% it may be too little to win representation in any constiteuncy for both lists.
Vox are polling at about where they were last time at just under 2%, with them likely not winning any more seats than the one they won last time in Alava.
Major parties
EAJ–PNV
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea–Partido Nacionalista Vasco
|
28-3 |
34.7% |
EH Bildu
Euskal Herria Bildu
|
28+7 |
34.5% |
Other parties
PSE-EE
Partido Socialista de Euskadi – Euskadiko Ezkerra
|
10- |
13.2% |
PP
Partido Popular del País Vasco
|
7+1* |
8.3% |
Sumar
Sumar Euskadi
|
1new** |
3.1% |
Vox
|
1– |
2.1% |
Elkarrekin Podemos
|
0-6** |
2.4% |
Major parties
EAJ–PNV
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea–Partido Nacionalista Vasco
28-3
Polling Average: 34.7%
EH Bildu
Euskal Herria Bildu
28+7
Polling Average: 34.5%
Other parties
PSE-EE
Partido Socialista de Euskadi – Euskadiko Ezkerra
10-
Polling Average: 13.2%
PP
Partido Popular del País Vasco
7+1*
Polling Average: 8.3%
Sumar
Sumar Euskadi
1new**
Polling Average: 3.1%
Vox
1–
Polling Average: 2.1%
Elkarrekin Podemos
0-6**
Polling Average: 2.4%
*Compared with PP+Cs result in 2020
**The Sumar list contains parties that were part of the Podemos list in 2020
Constituencies
Click on a constituency to see the projected seat count there
Alava
Under the current projection:
PP
is winning the last seat
Sumar
would win the next the seat