Overview

The previous election in Quebec marked a major change to its party system. During the previous 48 years, power in Quebec had alternated between the centre-right/centrist federalist Parti libéral du Québec, PLQ and the centre-left pro-independence Parti Québécois (PQ). In 2018, this two party system was broken after Francois Legault's centre-right Coalition Aveir Québec (CAQ) won a majority with 74 of National Assembly's 125 seat. The CAQ in a way claim to be beyond the federalist-nationalist divide in the province – they are Quebec nationalists but they don't support independence like PQ.

The CAQ are overwhelming favourites to win re-election with an increased majority. Francois Legualt has been a consistently popular Premier and faces a very divided opposition.

The PLQ are expected to keep their status as the Offical Opposition, though likely with a drop in their seat count. Their leader since 2020, Dominique Anglade, is a former CAQ member who switched to the PLQ and become an MNA in 2015. She has moved the party somewhat to the left on economic and enviornmental issues, but has also made the party less opposed to laïcité and French language requirements. Despite this, it seems as if they are destined to become increasingly "The Anglo Party" this election, as they are set to lose almost all of their seats outside of Montreal, and mostly in heavily-Anglophone Western Montreal at that.

Current polling indicates that the PQ are headed for an all time worst result, with them possibly dropping to as little as just 1 seat, though recently their position in the polls has improved, as has the popularity of their leader since the first debate. Nonetheless, many of their seats are held with relatively slim majorities and so they will likely lose around half of their seats at least.

Québec solidaire (QS) are a left-wing pro-independence party formed in 2006. Their support surged at the last election, going from 3 to 10 seats and from 7.6% of the vote to 16.1%. Most of their support comes from the east Montreal and they regularly poll as the most popular party among 18-34 year olds. They have the possibiltiy of picking up a few seats from the PLQ in Montreal, but outside the largest city they are expected to lose some of their seats to the CAQ.

The right-wing federalist Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) was formed in 2009. In the elections it has contested it recieved negligable support, having never won a seat and getting only 1.5% of the vote in 2018. However, they are currently averaging 16% of the vote in the polls, putting them in third just below the PLQ on 18%. Their rise can explained as a reaction by those opposed to COVID-19 measures imposed by the CAQ, which has now opened up broader critiues of the government from the right-wing. They are the biggest unknown in this election given their previously minimal support, though polls suggest their support is very strong in Quebec City. At the moment, however, it seems more likely than not that they will not win a seat.