Current Projected Seat Count
SNP
63 ±0
CONSERVATIVES
28 -3
LABOUR
22 -2
GREEN
11 +5
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
5 ±0
ALBA
0 new
REFORM
0 new
Current Seat Count
Forecast Seat Count
Overview
The election in Scotland is not really a question of who's going to win. Undoubtedly the SNP will be by far and away the largest party. Instead, the question is whether they will get a majority. Given that the Scottish Parliament is elected with a form of Proportional Representation, it is difficult for one party to get a majority. However, the SNP are helped by the fact that they do much better in the Constituency Vote than they do in the Regional Vote. The constituency polls have steadily been getting worse for them, however, and they are now averaging only slightly better than their 2016 reuslt, where only a couple of months ago they consistently polled above 50%. Our forecast currently has the SNP staying on 63 seats, 2 short of a majority (all of them being constituency seats).
The Conservatives and Labour are expected to lose seats, down 3 and 2 seats respectively. 2016 and 2017 had historically good results for Scottish Conservatives, but the 2019 General Election saw them lose half of their seats despite gains across the country elsewhere, and on average, the polls have them slightly down from 2016.
The Scottish Greens are expected to achieve a record high result this election with a forecast 11 seats, up 5 from 2016, with every region expected to elect at least one Green MSP for the first time.
The Liberal Democrats are forecast to recieve 5 seats for the third election in a row. They hold the seats of the Orkney Islands and the Shetland Islands, which were the two seats with the largest majorities in the last election, so they are unlikely to lose those. Their other two held constituency seats, Edinburgh Western and North East Fife, are more marginal but they are currently favoured in both of them.
Seats are allocated both by First Past The Post and Proportional Representation. There are 73 constiuencies that use FPTP and 8 Regions, each with 7 region-wide Members of the Scottish Parliament allocated to make the seat count more representative of the vote in each region.
Constituencies
Regions
Seats Forecast to Change Hands
Edinburgh Central
FORECAST: SNP gain from Conservatives
Majority over SNP: 1.8%
Majority over Labour: 8.3%
Past Elections
20071
LAB
2011
SNP
2016
CON
Then-Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, narrowly won this seat from the SNP in 2016 that has been a perennial multi-party marginal, with no candidate ever having got higher than 38% in this constituency. In 2016, the Tory majority over the SNP was just 1.8%, with Labour (who held this seat between 19991 and 2011) just 8.3% behind. This was also one of just 3 consituencies where the Scottish Greens stood a candidate, getting a rather impressive 13.6%, arguably splitting the pro-indepepndence vote. Even with the Greens standing a candidate again this election, the SNP look set to take this, both due to the fact of how small the majority is (even a small national swing from the Conservatives to the SNP should see this seat go to the SNP), but also that Ruth Davidson is not standing for re-election.
Dumfriesshire
FORECAST: SNP gain from Conservatives
Majority over SNP: 3.4%
Majority over Labour: 12.1%
Past Elections
20071
LAB
2011
LAB
2016
CON
Dumfriesshire is one of the two seats the Conservatives gained from Labour at the last election and the Westminster near-equivalent seat (on slightly different boundaries) was the only Conservative seat in Scotland from 2005-2017. Despite being located in South Scotland, the most Conservative voting part of the country, it was the 7th most marginal seat in the last election, making it very vulnerbale to a swing from the Tories to the SNP.
Eastwood
FORECAST: SNP gain from Conservatives
Majority over SNP: 4.5%
Majority over Labour: 5.1%
Past Elections
20071
LAB
2011
LAB
2016
CON
Eastwood is the only seat in Greater Glasgow held by the Conservatives and it is also one of two seats the Tories gained from Labour in the last election, with the SNP narrowly beating Labour for second place as well. Labour have little chance of retaking this seat, having dramatically fallen by 21.6% between 2015 and 2019 in the Westminster near-equivalent, East Renfrewshire. That same seat has also only had a swing from the Tories to the SNP of 4.4% between 2015 and 2019, smaller than the national swing of 7.6%, and with such a small majority in Eastwood, this should be an easy gain for the SNP.
Galloway and West Dumfries
FORECAST: SNP gain from Conservatives
Majority: 4.5%
Past Elections
20071
CON
2011
CON
2016
CON
Galloway and West Dumfries is another seat in South Scotland, however this one has been held by the Conservatives in every election since 20031. Despite this and the generally Conservative voting nature of South Scotland, the swing here in 2016 was just 0.8% from the SNP to the Tories, smaller than the national 3.5% swing. With a majority of just 4.5%, the same as Eastwood, this should be another easy SNP gain.
1Elections before 2011 used different boundaries
